Is Tesla's FSD missing the road for the trees?

Link to the original Kaggle Report

Tesla's FSD is by far one of the most controversial pieces of technology under development. In this report, we dive into the NHTSA database to find customer complaints related to FSD, and what customers are telling the NHTSA.

Tesla FSD was publicly released around October 2021, though the vehicles were on the road for years before that. Thus for our investigation, we compiled all customer complaints filed for all vehicle manufacturers for model years 2016-2025 (current year). This will allow us to compare Tesla to other vehicle manufacturers. The data is publicly available on kaggle.

Impact of the release of FSD on NHTSA complaints

Tesla released FSD around October 2021. The data indicates there was a significant uptick in the number of complaints in the months following the release of Tesla's FSD.

The chart below graphs the first derivative of monthly complaint counts for each vehicle manufacturer in the months around the time FSD was released. The first derivative for Tesla spikes around February 2022, then is negative by the end of March 2022. By the first-derivative test from calculus, we can determine that there is a local maximum around this time period. In other words, the number of incoming complaints peaks around Jan/February 2022 and March 2022 and is in fact an outlier in our data (total variation ∫|f'(x)|). Over the 8-month period from October 2021 to May 2022, Tesla exhibited the highest total variation in complaint rate changes—525 units, compared to 378 for Honda and only 55 for Toyota.

This metric captures how rapidly complaint counts fluctuate. Tesla’s complaints changed much more dramatically month-to-month, hence is an outlier.

Total variation in complaint rates:

Tesla, Inc. 525.0

Honda (American Honda Motor Co.) 378.0

Chrysler (FCA US, LLC) 266.0

Ford Motor Company 217.0

Kia America, Inc. 110.0

Toyota Motor Corporation 55.0

Focusing in on this time period, we see the five biggest categories of complaints being filed against Tesla between January 2022 and end of March 2022 revolved around:

Forward Collision Avoidance
Service Brakes, Forward Collision Avoidance
Vehicle Speed Control, Unknown or Other
Vehicle Speed Control, Forward Collision Avoidance
Unknown Other

Note the volume of these categories as well, with well over 200 complaints about Forward Collision Avoidance alone. For comparison, Tesla had only 5 Forward Collision Avoidance complaints filed within the same time period in 2021 (before FSD was publicly released) and 0 in 2020, as shown in the chart below.

To better understand the nature of these new complaints filed against Tesla, we generate a word cloud from the complaint summaries submitted during the selected time period. In this visualization, the size of each word reflects its frequency in the text after removing common stopwords and generic automotive terms like "Tesla" or "vehicle."

How to interpret the word cloud:

Larger words appear more frequently across the summaries and likely represent recurring issues, themes, or keywords in the complaints.
Smaller words are mentioned less often but can still provide meaningful context.
The word cloud helps surface dominant patterns and can highlight specific components, conditions, or behaviors (e.g., “brake”, “alert”, “failure”) that are central to user-reported concerns.
This qualitative insight can guide deeper quantitative investigation — for example, checking whether frequent terms like "phantom" or "braking" correlate with certain models, conditions, or outcomes.

By scanning the prominent terms, we gain an initial sense of what drivers are experiencing or perceiving when issues with Tesla's forward collision system arise.

Seems Brake is the word of the day. Here are a few cases:

ODI: 11447292

Date of Incident: 2022-01-12

The car repeatedly applies the brakes when the cruise control is engaged when there is no imminent safety issue. It will do this on the highway when vehicles are following putting me at risk for a rear end collision. When I use the cruise on secondary roads (to stay under the speed limit) the behavior is similar. The car will apply brakes for passing shadows, again putting me at risk for a rear end collision. I no longer use the cruise function because the braking operation is unpredictable and it is, in my opinion, generally hazardous.

ODI: 11448951

Date of Incident: 2022-01-24

On 1/24/22: 9:11 am eastbound Redden Road east of Bridgeville, DE. This is flat terrain with mostly open fields on east side of the road. On a straight Regular 2 lane road, center yellow strips and white edging. West bound truck triggered braking and swerve to left. 9:14 Another truck and same circumstances further east and same result. Turned off steering assist and cruise control. 10:42 westbound on Redden Road roughly same area. Truck eastbound. Slight braking 150 yards in front of me then brakes slammed on while passing each other. Braking reduced speed by 10 mph or more and swerve to right. Hard braking and a swerve to the right for no reason. Anyone behind me would have hit me. Basically I have to make sure road behind me is completely clear before turning cruise control or auto steer on! Anyone within 5 car lengths would hit me. Not safe. Can they remotely download these events from the car? TESLA VIRTUAL DIAGNOSTICS Reviewed the logs and confirmed the phantom braking and confirmed it was due to not having a forward facing radar. System overly sensitive to err on the side of caution. They hope to fix it eventually via software updates. In my opinion, it isn't safe and should be de activated and money refunded.

ODI: 11450047

Date of Incident: 2022-02-01

During a 144 mile trip, my late 2021 Model 3 "phantom-braked" 4 separate times in just one day. Meaning the car saw some imaginary object in front of it and proceeded to slam on the brakes with traffic behind me. The first two occurrences this day were due to what I'm assuming is the shadow of two Semis. The third occurrence was after driving past a van on the shoulder with the autopilot system off. The last occurrence, before I seriously began to feel unsafe in this car, occurred when about to cross below an overpass with nonexistent traffic in front of me. Up until this specific day, I've experienced 4 phantom braking events spread across 4 months and 4500 miles. After today, and an additional 4 occurrences of phantom braking added within a few miles, my model 3 feels unsafe to me

Trees

During our investigation, we found many accidents that were not officially recognized by authorities as an FSD-related accident. These accidents span the entire globe and have one common factor: A tree.

ODI: 11631682

Date of Incident: 2024-12-05

What component or system failed or malfunctioned, and is it available for inspection upon request? There were multiple component and system failures that were experienced. My vehicles autopilot and full self driving took over causing my vehicle to crash head on into a tree. How was your safety or the safety of others put at risk? My safety and others were at risk because I had no control over my vehicle. Has the vehicle or component been inspected by the manufacturer, police, insurance representatives or others? No. The car was taken into custody of the insurance company. Were there any warning lamps, messages or other symptoms of the problem prior to the failure, and when did they first appear? No.

Poles were also common, but let's just focus on trees for now.

Coincidentally, as I write, news outlets are publishing a story involving NBA prospect Alijah Arenas, whose Cybertruck recently crashed into a tree. Arenas was in a coma after the incident. His parents are now saying that the crash was due to Cybertruck malfunction.

“The car malfunctioned on him,” Arenas told Matt Barnes. “The steering wheel went limp and ran him right into a tree.”

A similar case was caught on video and reported by Elektrek. In the video, we see a Tesla in FSD turn and crash itself into a tree so quickly that the driver does not have time to stop. Remember that a Tesla Model 3 is heavier than most sedans, which means they move with greater momentum, and hence require more effort to bring to a stop.

Here are a few other cases reported to the NHTSA.

ODI: 11655429

Date of Incident: 2025-04-17

The contact owns a 2021 Tesla Model 3. The contact stated while his wife was driving at approximately 29 MPH, the vehicle independently accelerated and the front of the vehicle crashed into a tree, where it came to a stop. No warning lights were illuminated. The front driver's side air bag was deployed. A police report was filed. Medical attention was sought as a precaution; however, there were no injuries sustained. The vehicle remained at the residence. The vehicle was not diagnosed or repaired. The manufacturer was not notified of the failure. The failure mileage was approximately 80,340.

ODI: 11645911

Date of Incident: 2025-02-14

The contact owns a 2025 Tesla Tesla Model Y. The contact stated the while driving at approximately 30 MPH, the vehicle crashed into a tree impacting the front of the vehicle, but the air bag did not deploy. The contact did not sustain injuries. The vehicle wa towed to a body shop. A police report was taken. The vehicle has not been diagnosed or repaired. The manufacturer was notified of the failure. The failure mileage was 4,444.

There are similar reports of Tesla vehicles taking over and crashing into trees as far back as 2020.

ODI: 11396564

Date of Incident: 2020-10-16

UNINTENDED ACCELERATION RESULTING IN A CRASH WITH A TREE. MY CAR WAS TOTAL. THE CAR WAS WAS STATIOANARY WAITING TO PUT AIR IN MY TIRE.

Also, here are some news articles of cases that are not officially recognized as FSD-related but are not officially not-FSD related either. Cases that may have gone unnoticed.

There are many more cases just like these. flyingpenguin.com has done a great job at keeping track of these cases.

We do not let teenagers use calculators on parts of the SAT. They should not be using FSD. Experimental technology.

ODI: 11473272

Date of Incident: 2022-07-10

I was coming out of the park and getting on the main road, when the Tesla accelerated without warning in huge burst of speed. I don't use AutoPilot. I had to drive the car out of the road to avoid the incoming traffic and the Tesla hit a tree and a parked car. Then it came to a stop. Then the airbags also failed to deploy. I reported to the police .

ODI: 11466262

Date of Incident: 2022-05-16

The contact's son owned a 2021 Tesla Model 3. The contact stated that his son was involved in a fatal collision while driving at an undisclosed speed with the autopilot activated. The contact was informed by his son's friend, who was a passenger in the vehicle, that the autopilot malfunctioned, causing the vehicle to inadvertently drive off the road, hit a tree, and then catch fire. An unknown bright orange light was seen on the windshield right before the failure occurred. The contact's son's friend was able to exit the vehicle, but the contact's son was unconscious and was not able to exit the vehicle. The fire department was able to extinguish the fire. A fire department report was filed. The contact's son's friend received medical attention for burns and bruises on his legs. The contact's son's autopsy report stated that his son died as a result of intense thermal heat and smoke inhalation. The vehicle was towed and remained with the Highway Patrol. The manufacturer was not made aware of the failure. The failure mileage was unknown.

ODI: 11449119

Date of Incident: 2021-11-24

The contact owns a 2020 Tesla Model 3. The contact stated that while driving on the right side of the road at 35-45 MPH, on autopilot mode with a passenger in the front passenger seat, the vehicle drove off the road independently and crashed into a tree. The air bags failed to deploy. There were no warning lights illuminated. The contact's face hit the steering wheel. The contact sustained a black eye with laceration, bruised ribs, head, neck and back pain, sprained left ankle, bruises on her thigh, may have sustained nerve damage on the right side of the face that hit the steering wheel and sciatic nerve damage on the right side of her body. The occupant of the front passenger seat sustained neck, back and clavicle injuries. The contact sought medical assistance the next day. The vehicle was towed to a tow lot, then it was towed to a Tesla certified specialist body shop. A police report was filed. The contact has not been able to get a hold of the manufacturer. The vehicle was not diagnosed or repaired. The failure mileage was 55,000.

ODI: 11434806

Date of Incident: 2021-09-20

The car suddenly picked up the speed in the parking lot, went over the car stopper, curb and hit the Tree. The airbags never got activated, OR the sensors were nonfunctional. I received a call in less than 1 minute from Tesla Roadside if I was safe. Paramedics took me to the ER by 911. I had some injuries because of a malfunction of airbags, brakes, and warning systems. The car is towed to the nearby Tesla-approved repair place. I am somewhat concerned about the cause, and I believe Tesla knew what had malfunctioned in their car. I have been a safe driver without traffic tickets and accidents ever in the last 45 years.

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